30% by'amashanyarazi ku isi aturuka ku mbaraga zishobora kubaho, kandi Ubushinwa bwagize uruhare runini

Iterambere ryingufu zisi yose rigera kumihanda ikomeye.

Ku ya 8 Gicurasi, nk'uko raporo iheruka gusohoka mu kigo cy’ibitekerezo by’ingufu ku isi Ember: Mu 2023, tubikesha izamuka ry’izuba n’umuyaga

kubyaza ingufu ingufu, kongera ingufu z'amashanyarazi bizabarirwa 30% bitigeze bibaho mumashanyarazi yisi yose.

2023 irashobora guhinduka ikintu gikomeye mugihe imyuka ihumanya ikirere mu nganda zingufu.

Ati: “Ejo hazaza h’ingufu zishobora kubaho harahari.Imirasire y'izuba, byumwihariko, iratera imbere byihuse kuruta uko umuntu yabitekerezaga.Ibyuka bihumanya ikirere

mu rwego rw'amashanyarazi birashoboka ko uzagera ku 2023 - impinduka ikomeye mu mateka y'ingufu. ”Umuyobozi wa Ember Global ushinzwe ubushishozi Dave Jones yavuze.

Yang Muyi, impuguke mu gusesengura politiki y’ingufu muri Ember, yavuze ko kuri ubu, ingufu nyinshi z’umuyaga n’izuba zibanda kuri

Ubushinwa niterambere ryubukungu.Birakwiye cyane kuvuga ko Ubushinwa buzatanga umusanzu munini mumuyaga wisi kandi

ubwiyongere bw'amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y'izuba mu 2023. Amashanyarazi mashya y’izuba angana na 51% by'isi yose, n'umuyaga mushya

ingufu zingana na 60%.Ubushinwa ingufu z'izuba n'umuyaga hamwe no kongera amashanyarazi bizakomeza kuba ku rwego rwo hejuru

mu myaka iri imbere.

Raporo yerekana ko aya ari amahirwe atigeze abaho ku bihugu bihitamo kuba ku isonga mu isuku

ingufu z'ejo hazaza.Kwagura ingufu z'amashanyarazi ntibizafasha gusa kubuza ingufu z'amashanyarazi mbere, ahubwo bizatanga n'ubwiyongere

itangwa rikenewe mu guha ingufu ubukungu bwose, buzaba imbaraga zifatika mu kurwanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere.

Hafi ya 40% by'amashanyarazi ku isi aturuka ku masoko make ya karubone

Raporo ya "2024 Global Electricity Review" yashyizwe ahagaragara na Ember ishingiye ku makuru y'ibihugu byinshi (harimo amakuru yaturutse kuri

Ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu, Eurostat, Umuryango w’abibumbye n’amashami atandukanye y’ibarurishamibare mu gihugu), gitanga a

incamake yuzuye ya sisitemu y’ingufu ku isi mu 2023. Raporo ikubiyemo ibihugu 80 bikomeye ku isi,

bingana na 92% by'amashanyarazi akenewe ku isi, hamwe n'amateka y'ibihugu 215.

Nk’uko iyi raporo ibigaragaza, mu 2023, bitewe n'ubwiyongere bw'ingufu z'izuba n'umuyaga, ingufu z'amashanyarazi zishobora kuvugururwa ku isi

azabarirwa hejuru ya 30% kubwa mbere.Hafi ya 40% by'amashanyarazi ku isi aturuka ku mbaraga nke za karubone,

harimo ingufu za kirimbuzi.Ubushyuhe bwa CO2 bwo kubyara amashanyarazi ku isi bugeze ku rwego rwo hasi, 12% munsi y’isonga ryayo mu 2007.

Imirasire y'izuba niyo soko nyamukuru yo kuzamura amashanyarazi muri 2023 kandi ikagaragaza iterambere ry’ingufu zishobora kubaho.Mu 2023,

ingufu z'amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y'izuba ku isi zizaba zirenze inshuro ebyiri amakara.Imirasire y'izuba yagumanye umwanya wayo

nkisoko yihuta cyane yumuriro wamashanyarazi kumyaka 19 yikurikiranya kandi irenga umuyaga nkisoko rishya rinini rya

amashanyarazi umwaka wa kabiri yikurikiranya.Mu 2024, biteganijwe ko amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y'izuba azagera ku rwego rwo hejuru.

Raporo yavuze ko ubushobozi bwo kongera isuku mu 2023 bwaba buhagije kugira ngo umusaruro w’amashanyarazi y’ibinyabuzima ugabanuke

na 1,1%.Nyamara, ibihe by'amapfa mu bice byinshi by'isi mu mwaka ushize byatumye amashanyarazi aboneka

kugeza kurwego rwayo rwo hasi mumyaka itanu.Ibura ry'amashanyarazi ryakozwe no kongera amakara yiyongereye, afite

byatumye ubwiyongere bwa 1% bw’umuriro w’amashanyarazi ku isi.Muri 2023, 95% yo kongera ingufu zamakara bizaba muri bine

bihugu byibasiwe cyane n’amapfa: Ubushinwa, Ubuhinde, Vietnam na Mexico.

Yang Muyi yavuze ko uko isi igenda irushaho guha agaciro intego yo kutabogama kwa karubone, ubukungu bwinshi bugenda buzamuka

zirimo kwihuta no kugerageza gufata.Burezili ni urugero rwiza.Igihugu, amateka ashingiye ku mashanyarazi,

yagize uruhare runini mugutandukanya uburyo bwo kubyara ingufu mumyaka yashize.Umwaka ushize, umuyaga nizuba

bangana na 21% by'amashanyarazi ya Berezile, ugereranije na 3.7% gusa muri 2015.

Afurika kandi ifite ingufu nini zidakoreshwa neza kuko ituwe na kimwe cya gatanu cyabatuye isi kandi ifite izuba ryinshi

ubushobozi, ariko akarere kuri ubu gakurura 3% gusa yishoramari ryingufu kwisi.

Urebye ingufu zikenewe, ingufu z'amashanyarazi ku isi zizamuka ku rwego rwo hejuru mu 2023, hamwe no kwiyongera

627TWh, bihwanye na Canada yose isabwa.Nyamara, kwiyongera kwisi muri 2023 (2,2%) biri munsi yikigereranyo muri vuba aha

myaka, kubera igabanuka ryinshi ryibisabwa mubihugu bya OECD, cyane cyane Amerika (-1.4%) nu Burayi

Ubumwe (-3.4%).Ibinyuranye, mubushinwa bwiyongereye vuba (+ 6.9%).

Kurenga kimwe cya kabiri cyumuriro w'amashanyarazi ukenera kwiyongera muri 2023 bizaturuka mubuhanga butanu: ibinyabiziga byamashanyarazi, pompe yubushyuhe,

amashanyarazi, ibyuma bifata ibyuma bikonjesha hamwe na santere zamakuru.Ikwirakwizwa ry'ikoranabuhanga rizihutisha amashanyarazi

gukura, ariko kubera ko amashanyarazi akora cyane kuruta ibicanwa biva mu kirere, ingufu rusange zizagabanuka.

Icyakora, raporo yanagaragaje ko hamwe no kwihutisha amashanyarazi, igitutu kizanwa n'ikoranabuhanga

nk'ubwenge bw'ubukorikori buragenda bwiyongera, kandi icyifuzo cyo gukonjesha cyiyongereye.Biteganijwe ko

ibisabwa bizihuta mugihe kizaza, bitera kwibaza amashanyarazi meza.Iterambere ryiterambere rishobora guhura na

kwiyongera kw'ibikenerwa n'amashanyarazi?

Ikintu cyingenzi mukuzamuka kwamashanyarazi akenerwa ni uguhumeka, bingana na 0.3%

yo gukoresha amashanyarazi ku isi mu 2023. Kuva mu 2000, umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bw’umwaka wahagaze kuri 4% (uzamuka ugera kuri 5% muri 2022).

Nyamara, kudakora neza bikomeje kuba ingorabahizi kuko, nubwo hari icyuho gito, konderasi nyinshi zagurishijwe

kwisi yose ni kimwe cya kabiri gusa nkubuhanga bugezweho.

Ibigo byamakuru nabyo bigira uruhare runini muguteza imbere isi yose, bigira uruhare runini mukuzamuka kwamashanyarazi

2023 nk'icyuma gikonjesha (+90 TWh, + 0.3%).Mugihe impuzandengo yumwaka ikenera ingufu muri ibyo bigo bigera hafi

17% kuva 2019, gushyira mubikorwa uburyo bugezweho bwo gukonjesha birashobora kuzamura ingufu za data center byibuze 20%.

Yang Muyi yavuze ko guhangana n’ingufu ziyongera ari imwe mu mbogamizi zikomeye zugarije isi yose.

Niba uzirikana icyifuzo cyinyongera kizaturuka mubikorwa bya decarbonizing binyuze mumashanyarazi, amashanyarazi

kwiyongera kw'ibisabwa bizaba kurushaho.Kugirango amashanyarazi asukure kugirango amashanyarazi akure, hari ibice bibiri byingenzi:

kwihutisha iterambere ryingufu zishobora kubaho no kuzamura ingufu zingirakamaro murwego rwagaciro (cyane cyane mugaragara

inganda zikoranabuhanga zifite amashanyarazi menshi).

Gukoresha ingufu ni ingenzi cyane mu gukemura ibibazo bikenerwa n’ingufu zisukuye.Ku kirere cya 28 cy’umuryango w’abibumbye

Guhindura Inama i Dubai, abayobozi ku isi biyemeje kuzamura ingufu za buri mwaka mu mwaka wa 2030. Ibi

kwiyemeza ningirakamaro mu kubaka amashanyarazi meza kuko azagabanya umuvuduko kuri gride.

Igihe gishya cyo kugabanuka kwangiza imyuka iva mu nganda zingufu zizatangira

Ember yahanuye ko igabanuka rya peteroli y’ibinyabuzima mu 2024, bizagabanuka cyane mu myaka yakurikiyeho.

Ubwiyongere bw'ibyifuzo muri 2024 buteganijwe kuba hejuru ugereranije no muri 2023 (+968 TWh), ariko kwiyongera kubyara ingufu zisukuye ni

biteganijwe ko bizaba byinshi (+1300 TWh), bigira uruhare mu kugabanuka kwa 2% kubyara peteroli y’ibinyabuzima ku isi (-333 TWh).Biteganijwe

kwiyongera kw'amashanyarazi asukuye byahaye abantu icyizere ko ibihe bishya byo kugabanuka kw'ibyuka biva mu rwego rw'amashanyarazi ari

hafi gutangira.

Mu myaka icumi ishize, kohereza ingufu zitanga ingufu, ziyobowe n’izuba n’umuyaga, byadindije iterambere

ya fosile yamashanyarazi kubyara hafi bibiri bya gatatu.Kubera iyo mpamvu, ingufu za fosile zitanga ingufu mu gice cyubukungu bwisi

yarenze impinga yayo byibuze hashize imyaka itanu.Ibihugu bya OECD biri ku isonga, hamwe n’ibyuka byose by’amashanyarazi

hejuru cyane muri 2007 no kugabanukaho 28% kuva icyo gihe.

Mu myaka icumi iri imbere, guhindura ingufu bizinjira mu cyiciro gishya.Kugeza ubu, gukoresha lisansi ikoreshwa mu rwego rw’ingufu ku isi

byanze bikunze bikomeza kugabanuka, bigatuma imyuka ihumanya ituruka mumirenge.Mu myaka icumi iri imbere, yiyongera mu isuku

amashanyarazi, ayobowe nizuba n umuyaga, biteganijwe ko arenze izamuka ryingufu zikenewe kandi bikagabanya neza ikoreshwa rya peteroli

n'ibyuka bihumanya ikirere.

Ibi ni ingenzi kugera ku ntego mpuzamahanga z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere.Isesengura ryinshi ryerekanye ko urwego rwamashanyarazi

igomba kuba iyambere muri decarbonise, hamwe niyi ntego izagerwaho muri 2035 mubihugu bya OECD na 2045 muri

isi yose.

Urwego rw'amashanyarazi kuri ubu rufite imyuka myinshi ya karuboni mu nganda iyo ari yo yose, itanga umusaruro urenze kimwe cya gatatu kijyanye n'ingufu

Umwuka wa CO2.Ntabwo gusa amashanyarazi asukuye asimbuza lisansi ikoreshwa muri moteri na bisi, amashyiga, itanura

nibindi bikorwa, ni urufunguzo rwo kwambura transport, gushyushya inganda nyinshi.Kwihutisha inzibacyuho

toa ubukungu busukuye amashanyarazi butwarwa numuyaga, izuba nandi masoko yingufu zisukuye bizateza icyarimwe ubukungu

gutera imbere, kongera akazi, kuzamura ikirere no kuzamura ubusugire bwingufu, kugera ku nyungu nyinshi.

Nukuntu imyuka ihumanya vuba bizaterwa nuburyo ingufu zubatswe zubatswe vuba.Isi imaze kumvikana kuri

igishushanyo mbonera gikenewe kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya.Mu nama y’umuryango w’abibumbye y’imihindagurikire y’ibihe (COP28) mu Kuboza gushize,

abayobozi b'isi bageze ku masezerano y'amateka yo kwikuba gatatu ubushobozi bwo kongera ingufu z'amashanyarazi ku isi mu 2030. Intego izazana

umugabane w'isi w'amashanyarazi ashobora kuvugururwa kugera kuri 60% muri 2030, hafi kabiri ugabanya imyuka iva mu nganda z'amashanyarazi.Abayobozi nabo

byemeranijweho muri COP28 gukuba kabiri ingufu za buri mwaka bitarenze 2030, ni ngombwa mu kumenya ubushobozi bwuzuye bwo gukwirakwiza amashanyarazi

no kwirinda kwiyongera kw'ibikenerwa n'amashanyarazi.

Mugihe amashanyarazi nizuba bitanga ingufu byihuse, nigute kubika ingufu hamwe nikoranabuhanga rya gride byakomeza?Iyo

igipimo cyingufu zishobora kongera ingufu zitanga ingufu zirushaho kwiyongera, uburyo bwo kwemeza umutekano no kwizerwa kwingufu

ibisekuruza?Yang Muyi yavuze ko kwinjiza ingufu nyinshi zishobora kuvugururwa no guhindagurika kw'amashanyarazi muri

sisitemu y'amashanyarazi Igenamigambi rifatika hamwe na gride ihuza birakenewe, hibandwa kuri sisitemu yo guhinduka.Guhinduka

biba ingenzi kuringaniza gride mugihe ibihe biterwa nikirere, nkumuyaga nizuba, birenze cyangwa bigwa

munsi y'ingufu zikenewe.

Kugabanya imbaraga za sisitemu yingufu zirimo gushyira mubikorwa ingamba zitandukanye, harimo kubaka ibikoresho bibika ingufu,

gushimangira ibikorwa remezo bya gride, kunoza ivugurura ry’isoko ry’amashanyarazi, no gushishikariza uruhare rw’ibisabwa.

Guhuza imipaka ihuza uturere ni ngombwa cyane kugirango habeho gusaranganya neza ibikoresho bisigaye hamwe nubushobozi busigaye hamwe

uturere duturanye.Ibi bizagabanya gukenera ubushobozi bwaho burenze.Kurugero, Ubuhinde bushyira mubikorwa guhuza isoko

uburyo bwo kwemeza neza gukwirakwiza amashanyarazi kubigo bikenera, guteza imbere umurongo uhamye kandi

gukoresha neza ingufu zishobora kubaho hakoreshejwe uburyo bwisoko.

Raporo yerekana ko mugihe bimwe na bimwe byubwenge bwa gride na tekinoroji ya batiri bimaze gutera imbere cyane kandi byoherejwe

komeza ituze ryokubyara ingufu zisukuye, ubushakashatsi buracyakoreshwa mububiko bwigihe kirekire buracyakenewe

kuzamura imikorere nubushobozi bwa sisitemu yingufu zizaza.

Ubushinwa bufite uruhare runini

Isesengura rya raporo ryerekana ko kwihutisha iterambere ry’ingufu zishobora kubaho: guverinoma yo mu rwego rwo hejuru irarikira

intego, uburyo bwo gushimangira, gahunda zoroshye nibindi bintu byingenzi bishobora guteza imbere iterambere ryihuse ryizuba n umuyaga

kubyara ingufu.

Raporo yibanze ku gusesengura uko ibintu byifashe mu Bushinwa: Ubushinwa bufite uruhare runini mu guteza imbere inzibacyuho ku isi.

Ubushinwa nuyoboye isi yose mu gutanga ingufu z’umuyaga n’izuba, hamwe n’ibisekuru byinshi byuzuye kandi buri mwaka

gukura mu myaka irenga icumi.Irimo kongera umuyaga nizuba bitanga ingufu kumuvuduko ukabije, uhindura

sisitemu nini cyane ku isi.Mu 2023 honyine, Ubushinwa buzatanga igice kirenga kimwe cya kabiri cy’umuyaga mushya n’izuba ku isi

ibisekuruza, bingana na 37% by'amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y'izuba n'umuyaga ku isi.

Ubwiyongere bw'ibyuka bihumanya ikirere mu Bushinwa bwaragabanutse mu myaka yashize.Kuva mu 2015, kwiyongera k'umuyaga n'izuba

mu Bushinwa yagize uruhare runini mu gutuma ibyuka bihumanya ikirere bituruka ku gipimo cya 20% munsi yacyo

bitabaye ibyo.Nubwo, nubwo Ubushinwa bwiyongereye cyane mubushobozi bwingufu zisukuye, ingufu zisukuye zizagera kuri 46% gusa

y'amashanyarazi mashya akenewe mu 2023, hamwe n'amakara aracyafite 53%.

2024 uzaba umwaka utoroshye ku Bushinwa kugera ku rwego rwo hejuru rw’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere.Bitewe n'umuvuduko n'ubunini

y'Ubushinwa bwubaka ingufu zisukuye, cyane cyane ingufu z'umuyaga n'izuba, Ubushinwa bushobora kuba bumaze kugera ku rwego rwo hejuru

imyuka y’amashanyarazi mu 2023 cyangwa izagera kuri iyi ntambwe muri 2024 cyangwa 2025.

Byongeye kandi, mu gihe Ubushinwa bwateye intambwe nini mu guteza imbere ingufu zisukuye no guha ingufu ubukungu bwacyo, imbogamizi

guma nkuko ubukana bwa karubone y’amashanyarazi y’Ubushinwa bukomeza kuba hejuru ugereranyije n’isi yose.Ibi byingenzi

hakenewe imbaraga zo gukomeza kwagura ingufu zisukuye.

Bitewe n’imiterere y’isi yose, inzira y’iterambere ry’Ubushinwa mu rwego rw’ingufu zirimo guhindura isi yosetion

gusukura ingufu.Iterambere ryihuse ry’umuyaga n’izuba byatumye Ubushinwa bugira uruhare runini mu guhangana n’ikibazo cy’ikirere.

Mu 2023, amashanyarazi akomoka ku mirasire y'izuba n'umuyaga mu Bushinwa azagera kuri 37% by'amashanyarazi ku isi, hamwe n'amashanyarazi

kubyara amashanyarazi bizarenga kimwe cya kabiri cyamashanyarazi yisi.Muri 2023, Ubushinwa buzabazwa byinshi

kurenza kimwe cya kabiri cyumuyaga mushya kwisi nizuba ryamashanyarazi.Hatabayeho gukura kwumuyaga nizuba

kuva mu 2015, imyuka y’amashanyarazi mu Bushinwa yaba yiyongereyeho 21% muri 2023.

Christina Figueres, wahoze ari umunyamabanga nshingwabikorwa wa UNFCCC, yagize ati: “Igihe cya peteroli y’ibinyabuzima cyageze ku bikenewe kandi byanze bikunze

kurangiza, nkuko raporo ya raporo ibigaragaza neza.Iyi ni ihinduka rikomeye: ikinyejana gishize tekinoroji ishaje idashobora

birebire guhatanira guhanga udushya no kugabanuka kugiciro cyingufu zingufu nububiko bizakora byose

twe n'umubumbe dutuye neza kuriwo. ”